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13

130 Second Street in Gowanus

Real estate
PE-OWNED

PE-OWNED

Acquired by The Carlyle Group

View PE Firm Profile

What PE Will Likely Do

Predictions

The Carlyle Group will acquire 130 Second Street in Gowanus using a highly leveraged debt-financed transaction, rather than using their own capital.

HIGH LIKELIHOODBased on: The Carlyle Group's track record of using debt-financed acquisitions and implementing cost-cutting measures in their portfolio companies.

Within the first 6-12 months, the Carlyle Group will likely announce 'optimization' measures, including potential staff reductions and closure of underperforming real estate locations.

HIGH LIKELIHOODBased on: The common private equity tactics observed in the retail industry, including debt loading, dividend recapitalization, store closures, inventory reduction, and maintenance deferral.

Over the following 12-24 months, the quality and maintenance of the remaining real estate properties will likely decline as the Carlyle Group defers renovations and updates to cut costs.

HIGH LIKELIHOODBased on: The lack of similar past failures recorded for the Carlyle Group, which suggests they may be able to implement these strategies without causing the company to fail outright.

Within 24-48 months, the financial strain of the debt load and cost-cutting measures may lead to bankruptcy rumors and more aggressive cost-cutting efforts.

HIGH LIKELIHOODBased on: The lack of similar past failures recorded for the Carlyle Group, which suggests they may be able to implement these strategies without causing the company to fail outright.

In the 48-60 month timeframe, there is a risk of potential liquidation, restructuring, or fire sale of the remaining real estate assets by the Carlyle Group.

HIGH LIKELIHOODBased on: The lack of similar past failures recorded for the Carlyle Group, which suggests they may be able to implement these strategies without causing the company to fail outright.

Expected Timeline

Phases
0-6 monthsCompleted

“0 to 6 months months”

Announcements about 'transformation' and 'optimization' of the 130 Second Street in Gowanus real estate portfolio

6-12 monthsYOU ARE HERE

“6 to 12 months months”

First round of real estate location closures and staff reductions announced

12-24 months

“12 to 24 months months”

Noticeable decline in the quality and maintenance of the remaining real estate properties

24-48 months

“24 to 48 months months”

Bankruptcy rumors begin, more aggressive cost cutting measures implemented

48-60 months

“48 to 60 months months”

Potential liquidation, restructuring, or fire sale of the remaining real estate assets

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What You Can Do

Take Action

Actions

  • Tenants of 130 Second Street in Gowanus should closely monitor the quality and maintenance of their properties over the coming years, as cost-cutting measures may lead to a noticeable decline.

  • Prospective tenants should be cautious about signing long-term leases with the property, as the long-term viability of the real estate portfolio may be in question.

Alternatives

Research independent alternativesSAFE

Look for family-owned or employee-owned businesses

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"130 Second Street in Gowanus is now PE-owned. Here's what that means for you."