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TI

Tijuana Flats

restaurants
PE-OWNED

Fast casual Tex-Mex restaurant chain known for hot sauce bar and fresh Mexican food.

PE-OWNED

Acquired by Ares Management2014-03-01

View PE Firm Profile

What Made It Great

“

Fresh Tex-Mex fast casual dining with extensive hot sauce selection and bold flavors

What PE Will Likely Do

Predictions

Portion sizes for popular menu items like burritos, tacos, and quesadillas will be reduced while prices remain the same or increase

HIGH LIKELIHOODBased on: Ares Management's track record of cost-cutting, debt loading, and brand management tactics in acquired companies

The restaurant will begin substituting lower-quality, cheaper ingredients in their sauces, marinades, and fillings, compromising the fresh, flavorful Tex-Mex experience

HIGH LIKELIHOODBased on: The restaurant industry playbook showing high frequency of portion reduction, ingredient substitution, and menu engineering in PE-owned chains

The variety of hot sauces and specialty toppings available at the signature hot sauce bar will be significantly reduced to focus on higher-margin items

HIGH LIKELIHOODBased on: The timeline of quality and experience degradation observed in similar past cases like Guitar Center and 24 Hour Fitness

Franchise fees and operational requirements for Tijuana Flats locations will increase, leading to some franchisees exiting the system and store closures

HIGH LIKELIHOODBased on: The timeline of quality and experience degradation observed in similar past cases like Guitar Center and 24 Hour Fitness

Expected Timeline

Phases
0-6 monthsCompleted

“0 to 6 months months”

Minor changes to portion sizes, ingredient quality, and hot sauce bar selection begin, but may not be immediately noticeable to regular customers

6-12 monthsYOU ARE HERE

“6 to 12 months months”

Noticeable reduction in portion sizes and quality degradation of sauces, fillings, and marinades becomes apparent to customers

12-24 months

“12 to 24 months months”

Regular customers start to bemoan the loss of the signature Tijuana Flats experience as the hot sauce bar dwindles, portions shrink further, and food quality continues to decline

24-36 months

“24 to 36 months months”

Accelerated store closures as franchise model becomes less viable, brand reputation is significantly damaged among loyal customers

Similar Cases

Other companies that followed a similar path after PE acquisition

Operating

TGI Friday's

Sentinel Capital Partners·2014

See full case study
Operating

P.F. Chang's

Centerbridge Partners·2019

See full case study
Operating

Outback Steakhouse

Bain Capital·2007

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Logan's Roadhouse

KKR·2006

See full case study
Operating

Friendly's

Sun Capital Partners·2007

See full case study

What You Can Do

Take Action

Actions

  • Enjoy Tijuana Flats while you can, as the dining experience is likely to deteriorate significantly in the next 1-2 years

  • If you're a frequent Tijuana Flats customer, consider providing feedback to the company about changes you notice in food quality, portion sizes, and the hot sauce bar

  • Seek out alternative local Tex-Mex restaurants that may be able to provide a similar fresh, flavorful experience as Tijuana Flats declines

Alternatives

Darden Restaurants (Olive Garden, LongHorn)SAFE

Publicly traded restaurant group

Local independent restaurantsSAFE

Support local businesses in your area

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"Tijuana Flats is now PE-owned. Here's what that means for you."